Markets are calm. Investors are happy. Who would have thought it was possible. To comeback and win the Presidency of Brazil with a margin of barely 2%.
Is Lula Unstoppable?
Despite winning only one out of five regions, with an overall margin of 2%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will become the President of brazil on January 1, 2023. And Interestingly, the first ever to serve three terms (albeit not consecutively).
Replacing the right win Bolsonaro may result in protests and social unrest that could paralyse the country. And reports have today already started emerge. But markets are calm. And investment managers are generally positive on Brazil Equity and Brazil's hard currency and local debt.
Brazil currently has lots of positives. From a governmental and administration perspective, past corruption has resulted in stronger governance. The central bank is independent. Any extreme leftist fiscal policies can be countered by the now right-leaning congress. In fact, inflation is coming down, and the likelihood of rate cuts are more likely in Brazil than in the U.S., Europe, or Asia.
Many initiatives has also been launched on the investment side of the economy. Private Sector Banks are taking more share of the loan book. The all important Petrobras is behaving more like the global listed Oil sector industry - paying large dividends and de-leveraging. And vital infrastructure is receiving the attention is has long needed.
Global Macro
What Happens When Liquidity Dries Up?
Liquidity Presents A Dichotomy

Is Fed Guidance in Backwardisation or Contango?
From Behind To Off The Curve

Is Inflation Headed Higher or Are We At Peak?
Inflation Protection Is Trending

What is the ECB Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI)?
Clear Objectives. Limited Detail.

Why Is The ECB Not Raising Interest Rates Faster?
What Is The Logic

What Are The Biggest Problems of Using Monetary Policy?
It Can't Solve Everything

Policy Normalisation, Recession & Soft Landings
ON INVESTORS MINDS

Is 5% Growth Possible in China This Year?
Usually They Deliver

Central Banks Diverge on Monetary Policy
Emerging vs Developed Opportunities

The Great Debate About The FED Being Behind The Curve
Fast, Faster, Fastest Rates

Will The Year Of The Tiger Roar Back?
ONE TO WATCH

What's Happening At Central Banks Around The Globe?
ON INVESTORS MINDS

Interest Rates & Quantitative Tightening
Asset Allocation is Changing

Economic Forecasting. What Works. What Doesn't?
ON INVESTORS MINDS

Is A Monetary Policy Mistake Inevitable
Trusting Central Banks

Are China's Growth Targets Achievable?
Challenging Times
