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3Q22 Global Outlook Season is Booming

Asset Allocation
Multi-Asset

In a bear market outlooks get read more

RFPnetworks Global Financial Markets Outlook 3Q 2022 depicted by women wearing metaverse headset on neon background

3Q22 Global Outlook Season is Booming

It's that time of the year that global financial market outlooks fill our research feeds. They are popular throughout the entire business cycle. But this time around clicks have gone through the roof.

We only can conclude that investors are feeling pain in their portfolios. And are looking for the right medicine to soothe their dry throats. And as the bear market firmly takes hold, the 60-40 portfolio has stopped working, and the economy heads towards recession, they are clearly looking for new ideas.

Capital Market Assumptions Research on RFPnetworks depicted by the words "My Opinion" on handwritten on chalkboard.

Capital Market Assumptions Have Changed. What Now?

Given the amount of clicks for long term risk premia estimates across all asset classes, we can only assume that Chief Investment Officers and Strategists are refreshing their portfolio assumptions. There's a lot happening on the macroeconomic front as inflation and rates rise, and global growth is continuously revised downwards. This type of research trend on RFPnetworks has historically preceded significant portfolio rebalancing by our clients.

60-40 portfolios may struggle.

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Municipals versus Corporate Bonds Today

The relative value of Municipals versus Corporate Bonds in a rising rate environment is now high on the research agenda of many professional investors.

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Why Is Stock-Bond Correlation in 2022 Different?

What has led to the breakdown in stock-bond correlations in 2022? Inflation? A changed macroeconomic environment? Will the 60-40 portfolio ever work again? Or should it be recalibrated back to reflect the covariances of a different decade.

Questions such as these are at the forefront of portfolio design today. The classic long equity volatility and bond duration portfolio is not working, and is causing a conundrum for asset allocators.

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Are we in Stagflation? What Assets do well in Stagflation?

Depending on which economist, strategist, equity or fixed income portfolio manager you follow, the view that we are now in stagflation varies. But that difference in opinion is not the interesting thing. What is more interesting is the variation in the underlying models and analysis they point to, in order to draw their conclusions. The lack of consensus is notable.

What is obscured is causality.

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Capital Market Assumptions Recalibration

Are future asset class assumptions for expected risks, returns and premia affected the current macroeconomic policy direction? Or are should ALM studies be recalibrated?

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Portfolio Manager Alpha versus Market Beta

Professional investors are being forced to reconsider their investment portfolio design. The efficacy of passive investing going forward is being questioned. And active asset managers are raising their voices, pointing to the abundant supply of alpha across asset classes where region, country, sector and company return dispersion has widened. Curiously, the professional investor community is listening.

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Unconstrained Fixed Income The Perfect Storm

March was a 'nowhere to hide' month for fixed income investors. As government bond yields rose to pre-pandemic levels. And spreads on both European and US High Yield widened over the entire first quarter. Raising the question, does an unconstrained fixed income approach make sense in the current market environment?

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Treasuries Experience Worst Drawdown in 50 Years

How will the yield curve develop and what is the thinking behind the walls of Central Banks?

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Solving for Inflation with Duration

Surging inflation is causing a headache for Fixed Income Investors in 2022. Which short term bonds soothe the pain in their portfolio?

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